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Will Trump Win the Elections? The Answer Is Here
What seemed impossible a few months ago now seems to be the most likely result: will Donald Trump become the next president of the US? He’s almost got the nomination in his pocket and the public opinion has shifted to his favor very quickly. People who didn’t treat him seriously at all are now sure he’s going to get the grand prize… Do they have a point?
The first question on whether Trump can assure a victory for the republicans is: can he beat Romney? Does he have anything more to offer?
Via: youtube.com
Mitt Romney was quite a strong candidate. The sitting president always has a head start, so it’s no wonder he ultimately lost, but he had to be taken seriously; he had a chance. Yet he didn’t manage to become the President. Now you think Trump will? Seriously, if you want to push that opinion – first tell me how he’s better than Romney and what will make him the successful republican candidate that Romney couldn’t be.
If you think Trump will win, a few months ago you probably didn’t believe he stood a chance – and the same trail of thinking makes you wrong in both cases. About the time of Iowa primaries, observers just didn’t want to deduce anything from the polls. They couldn’t imagine that Trump could pick up a fight with the whole bunch of more likely republican candidates.
No one took Trump seriously, so no one managed to gather enough strength to confront him, and during the months when he was eyed with a mixture of amusement in suspicion, the millionaire actually achieved a significant electorate. No one opposed Trump for fear of alienating his electors or just out of leniency… And now it’s too late for the other republicans.
So what can Trump do to get a better result than Romney?
Democrats are not planning to repeat the republican mistake: they’re going to attack Trump on all fronts and use all possible means; means republicans could have utilized, but they failed to see the need. Now democrats have a lot to exploit: Trump’s misogyny and homophobia, his racist approach, the numerous frauds he’s committed in his financial history; the fact that he has no experience at all at governing.
Via: cnn.com
There is a significant group of voters who love Trump, the angry lot who feel exposed and threatened in the current world. Trump’s call for a ban on Muslim presence or the desire to build a wall on the border with Mexico got him a huge following amongst a part of the masses. They are the reason why Trump won the GOP primary. However, they are also why the ordinary American is simply afraid of Trump; why they will do anything to stop him becoming the president. That shows in the general polls – Trump never tops those.
So let’s take a step back – if Trump is the republican candidate, how does he pull off a campaign that’s better than Romney’s?
Via: washingtontimes.com
If Trump wants to really win it, he needs three more millions of people to vote for him. So how does he get them all on his side? He needs to take over people who are favorable towards the current president and satisfied with their lives as the economy keeps growing.
As far as the electoral map is concerned, Trump would need 69 electoral votes to best Romney. What can he do to achieve that? Either capture Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire; or have a go at the South and top it with New Hampshire; or deal with the Midwest.
But can that actually happen? In Florida, the crucial group is going to be Latinos. Trump would have to fare much better than Romney with this group of voters. Can he? Currently, almost 90% – 87%, to be exact – of the Latino voters hold a negative opinion on Trump. In the hypothetical case of them all turning their backs on republicans, the democrat cause would be strengthened by North Carolina.
Via: newsexaminer.net
So what’s the deal with black Americans now? According to the polls, about 85% percent of those oppose Trump. 15% of those on his side would be needed for the millionaire to win a significant state off democrats… And that hasn’t happened for 60 years – no republican candidate has managed it.
Via: cnn.com
Will women back Trump? Doesn’t seem so. Only 30% of females have a positive view on the republican candidate. And that’s not enough, no way it can ever be with women forming 50% of the American population.
Via: theodysseyonline.com
The white electorate, surprisingly, has actually shrunk to 69% of the whole group of Trump backers. The rest comes from nonwhites whose participation has been slowly but continuously increasing.
To sum it up, the only way for Trump to actually way is to win over the black and Latino voters. The demography is against him, he’s in the middle of a handful of scandals, and head-to-head polls show he has no significant chance of becoming the president. Can his divided party successfully compete with the united Democratic Party while he keeps offending one huge group of voters after the other?
No way. It’s that simple. Donald Trump would have to be a different person to win it. And as he’s himself, he will bottle it. You have our word.